A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
